Drewry poll finds most big shippers expect flat or bleak peak season
Time：2016-06-23
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Half the shippers surveyed expected peak season volumes to be much the same as last year, with only 18 per cent forecasting higher volumes than last year while more than a third expect lower volumes.
"The results will be disappointing to carriers, who need a pick-me-up in another difficult and unprofitable year, and to terminal operators, many of whom have underutilised capacity," Drewry said.
"Carriers have taken the unprecedented step of removing capacity in key trades ahead of the peak season in a bid to support freight rates, suggesting their short-term demand forecasts were telling them much the same story."
The third quarter had generally been the busiest period for the industry as retailers in the major consumer centres of the US and Europe stocked up on goods for the beginning of the school year and the winter holiday season, Drewry said.
Between 2008 and 2015, the average proportion of annual world container volumes moved in the third quarter was 26.3 per cent, ahead of 25.4 per cent in the fourth quarter.
"In a generally unpredictable market, this constant of knowing when the peak demand quarters will occur has allowed carriers to plan their deployment strategies accordingly, in turn supporting rate increase requests," Drewry said.
"Traditionally, the third quarter is when carriers have been able to swell revenues through peak season, congestion and equipment repositioning surcharges, among others, but last year was pretty much a non-event."