Planning in an uncertain age
Time：2014-12-11
Browse：124
It might be thought that ship owners are less worried than most by the unexpected; in the volatile and unpredictable world of ships, something is always turning up to upset the applecart. A storm requires a massive diversion. A vital waterway is closed. A long term contract is aborted. Political sanctions intervene in promising business. During the life of any ship, the calculations which gave rise to her acquisition will almost certainly need to be reworked at some stage!
But there are more uncertainties than usual hovering over any maritime business today. The dip in the oil price is a classic example of the unexpected, causing its own range of associated unknowns. At first sight this is positive, other than for all those owners who have diversified into the offshore market in the anticipation of real growth driven by ever-higher energy prices. They may now be revisiting their long-term plans. There is agreement that the reducing oil price, which was initially thought to be a reaction to the ready availability of product from North American shale, is rather more politically driven, with the OPEC decision not to pump less for the time being.
But nobody really knows how this will work out. Will China increase its demands as it ramps up its industrial production? Might OPEC blink and change its mind? Will the “oil politics” that gather together Russia, Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the US and the North Sea somehow settle down again into something less worrying? One suspects that nobody, even at the very highest pay grade anywhere in the world, can answer any of these questions. Ship owners, as they always have done, will just have to adjust to the new dispensation.
None of this helps, of course, in the more detailed planning that is required as owners decide the technical specification of their fleets. If fuel is to be half the price it was a year ago, is it worth paying rather more for a vessel being marketed as an ECON ship? Is slow steaming such a good idea, with some shippers becoming restive at the time it takes to deliver their goods, even though slower is greener.
It might make people think quite hard about their plans to use LNG, which was being sold as an economical (as well as green) alternative to the marine gasoil which would be required to operate in ECAs, if scrubbers were to be ruled out. There are 120 LNG fuelled ships, not counting those LNGCs, in operation and on order, and the present change of circumstances might well cause a pause in the pace of ordering as people go back to the drawing board. It is interesting that the classification society DNV-GL is now offering a “Gas Ready” notation, should an owner wish to prepare their vessel for a potential conversion to LNG after delivery. It is all part of the business of being prepared, whatever might turn up!