US import box volume to flatten in July, but rise later: Port Tracker

Time:2011-06-20 Browse:48 Author:RISINGSUN

US IMPORT container volume is expected to remain much the same as last year through July before starting to resume increases later this summer, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

"With rising gas prices and challenges in the labour and housing markets, consumer spending has slowed and retailers have adjusted their inventory levels accordingly," said federation vice president Jonathan Gold. "We are confident long-term consumer demand will grow, and that imports will pick up in the fall."


US ports followed by Global Port Tracker handled 1.22 million TEU in April, up 12 per cent from March and seven per cent from April 2010. It was the 17th month in a row to show a year-on-year improvement after December 2009 broke a 28-month streak of year-on-year declines.


May was estimated at 1.27 million TEU, only one-third of one per cent over May 2010. June is forecast at 1.33 million TEU, a one per cent increase from a year ago; July at 1.39 million TEU, up 0.5 per cent from last year; August at 1.47 million TEU, up three per cent; September at 1.49 million TEU, up 12 per cent; and October at 1.54 million TEU, up 19 per cent. August through October is traditionally the busiest months of the year as retailers stock up for the holiday season.


The first half of 2011 is forecast at 7.2 million TEU, up five per cent from the first half of 2010. Global Port Tracker forecasts only six months beyond actual numbers, so a forecast for the full year is not yet available. Imports during 2010 totalled 14.7 million TEU, a 16 per cent increase over 2009.


"2011 is turning out to be an uncertain year for shipping," said Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett. "The good news for the coming few months is that inventories are too low, which will generate shipping demand as the supply chain moves to re-stock, albeit cautiously."


Port Tracker covers Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, Tacoma, New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah and Houston.