Media spreads protectionism alarm after Donald Trump wins US election
Time：2016-11-15
Browse：110
Its report cites a research note by New York investment bank Jefferies, which says the US election is expected to lead to greater protectionism.
The bank also said that global trade volumes, which used to grow at twice the rate of global GDP, were this year expected to fall below global GDP growth.
"The main drivers behind the slowdown are cyclical factors and a decline in outsourcing of production," Jefferies said.
"We believe there`s a risk that both factors may continue to negatively impact global trade following the US election result, which is expected to lead to increased protectionism."
The outlook for container volumes, which have shown a "modest recovery" from one per cent growth last year to two per cent growth this year, was increasingly uncertain following the US election, Jefferies said.
"The US election result threatens ocean freight recovery, with a decline in outsourcing of production already set to push trade volumes below global GDP growth," declared Lloyd`s Loading List.
"The risk of increased protectionism following the election of Donald Trump to the White House could derail a global trade and freight growth recovery already struggling against other emerging structural challenges, with large carriers such as Maersk likely to feel the pain," it declared.
"Our estimates currently assume container freight rates will fall back to the 2016 average level next year, but that the contract portfolio, accounting for 50 per cent of volume, will be around 25 per cent higher," said Jefferies in a statement unrelated to the US election.
Freight forwarders, however, could stand to benefit from increased complexity created by more protectionism by being able to offer customers tailor-made solutions, said Lloyd`s List.
"Drewry predicted that Donald Trump `would tear up existing trade agreements` while his proposed imposition of tariffs on US imports could set in motion retaliatory tariffs from other nations on imports of US goods, "both of which would be harmful for the nation` container trade," said Lloyd`s Loading List.