Tanker market picks up after summer lull
Time：2014-10-11
Browse：114
The VLCC figures are nothing to write home about but are better than the operating cost levels of a couple of weeks ago when Gulf/USG earnings were in negative territory.
Owners and analysts are predicting a bounce-back in the market based on higher refinery runs predicted for the fourth quarter of an average increase of 1.5m barrels per day (bpd) not to mention winter generally.
The clean products market is also seeing something of a revival with LR2′s earning almost $22,000 a day on the Gulf/Japan run and LR1′s about $15,000 a day. MR rates have also been firming.
Somehow, though, the products story – such a good one on paper – has lagged behind predictions.
Products trade has been growing far faster than crude trade which should have produced much higher returns for owners. But significant expansion of the product carrier fleet has so far killed any substantial recovery in earnings -13% fleet growth in 2009 for example, according to Banchero Costa.
The Italian broker’s analysis of the products market says 2014 was another disappointing year for MR tanker owners with earnings for the first eight months of the year 42% down year-on-year on 2013.
Things could become even more challenging says Banchero Costa with over 19m dwt of product tankers ordered last year – more than three times the 5.9m dwt ordered in 2012. Most of those ships are due to deliver in the next two years. The MR fleet could grow 8% next year if all the scheduled deliveries come. Talk about killing the Golden Goose!