When I left Scotland late last year to become Chief Executive of the UK Chamber of Shipping, the referendum debate was already reaching fever pitch. I think few people south of the border had, at the time, a real understanding of just how divisive the campaign had become.
Now the campaign is over, and the result is in, those divisions must be healed – across industries, businesses and communities alike.
Over the last year we have held countless meetings, seminars and events for our members and the Scottish Government to address these concerns. And we have made a number of very vocal and public interventions winning widespread media coverage.
In business, we know that the enemy of growth is uncertainty. And whichever side you supported, there has been tremendous uncertainty across not just the Scottish economy, but the UK as a whole. As the polls tightened in the closing weeks of the campaign, billions of pounds were wiped off the stock market and the pound plummeted against every major currency in the developed world. The result of yesterday’s referendum has eased that uncertainty, but frankly the result was just too close to put an end to the independence question.
In 2011 the UK held a referendum on the alternative vote, an issue on which many had campaigned for decades. The result, 69% favouring the status quo, was so decisive that it put the question to bed for at least a generation. This week’s result has not achieved the same end, and it will mean, unless a favourable new constitutional settlement can be found, another referendum is likely within a decade or two.
Regardless, the Better Together campaign’s panicked, last minute offering of new powers for Scotland will deliver a new form of uncertainty – over both tax and spending. What ‘devo-max’ offers in principle, and what it will do in practice, is unknown. The Westminster parties will no doubt think it was a wise campaign tactic, but questions remain over its wisdom for the long-term strategic health of the UK. This means that we have to continue to fight for our Scottish members to ensure their voice is heard as this new option is fleshed out.
The UK Chamber I believe has won many friends during this campaign. We know the Scottish Government has valued the expertise we have been able to provide, and was grateful for the measured tone and sensitivity with which we conveyed our opinion. But so too has the media and UK parties valued our candour and vocal involvement in explaining how this macro-political event would impact on the economy, and the shipping industry’s massive contribution to it.
One member said to me recently, ‘once the referendum is over please don’t forget about Scotland’. We never would do that. We’re already working towards an event in Holyrood in November and continue our work across all aspects of Scottish shipping from Aberdeen to Glasgow, and a key part of my strategy is to foster deep and productive relationships with our Scottish members – as well as those we need to influence in Edinburgh and beyond.