Port Tracker expects US imports to flatten in May, rise in August

US RETAIL import growth is expected to slow in May for the first time since 2009 and stay that way till August when the annual peak seasons shifts into high gear, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker issued by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

"We expect the second half of the year to be more robust than the first half. Consumers are being cautious about expenditures in light of the higher gasoline costs and rising inflation combined with mixed signals from the economic data," said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates.


Said NRF vice president Jonathan Gold: "After nearly a year and a half of volume increases, it`s not surprising to see some levelling off. Retailers are cautious with how much merchandise they import due to economic pressures such as higher commodity prices, but overall consumer demand remains strong."


Major American container ports were forecast to increase 0.3 per cent to 1.08 million TEU in March, the 16th consecutive month to show year-on-year improvements. April was forecast at 1.18 million TEU, four per cent up on 2010, but year-on-year declines were forecast for May, June and July.


May import volumes at the ports are expected to come in at 1.26 million TEU, the first year-on-year decline since November 2009. June is forecast at 1.31 million TEU, down 0.1 per cent and July at 1.38 million TEU.


Growth is anticipated to resume during the annual peak season for Christmas sales. The Port Tracker forecast calls for increases of two per cent to 1.46 million TEU in August and 11 per cent to 1.49 million TEU in September.


The first half of 2011 was forecast at 7.1 million TEU, up four per cent from the first half of 2010. Imports through 2010 totalled 14.7 million TEU, a 16 per cent increase over 2009.