Port Tracker sees 6pc first half US import growth - 7-8pc full year

US IMPORT cargo volume through US container ports will rise 11 per cent during February year on year, six per cent in the first half and seven to eight per cent for the full year, according to the Global Port Tracker report commissioned by National Retail Federation.

"While high unemployment and rising commodity prices are cause for concern, retailers are encouraged by six consecutive months of gains and improved consumer confidence," said federation vice president Jonathan Gold.


US ports handled 1.14 million TEU in December, the latest month for which actual numbers are available. That was down seven per cent from November as the holiday season came to an end, but up five per cent from December 2009. It was the 13th month in a row to show a year-on-year improvement after December 2009 broke a 28-month streak of declines.


January numbers are expected to be steady at 1.14 million TEU, a six per cent increase over January 2010. February should see an 11 per cent increase year on year to 1.11 million TEU; March is expected to rise eight per cent to 1.16 million TEU; April to be up seven per cent to 1.22 million TEU; May, up three per cent to 1.3 million TEU and June up four per cent to 1.37 million TEU.


The first half of 2011 is forecast to rise six per cent to 7.3 million TEU year on year. That compares with 17 per cent growth in the first half of 2010 over the first half of 2009. For the full year, 2010 totalled 14.7 million TEU, a 16 per cent increase over 2009. The percentages were high because 2009`s paltry 12.7 million TEU was the lowest since 2003.


"This year will see the return of the consumer as the main driving force of liner imports despite lingering high unemployment rates," said Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett, whose analysts prepared the study.


"The short-term indicators that drive our model suggest that there will be solid growth this year but our caution is that the rate of growth seen in 2010 will not be repeated. We are projecting that annual growth will be in the seven to eight per cent range," Mr Hackett said.