Port Tracker forecasts continuing north European box growth

NORTH Europe container volumes are estimated to exceed three million TEU in November 2010 and high single-digit growth is projected for 2011, according to the Global Port Tracker.

Container volume increased 10 per cent in November 2010 year on year, including an estimated 1.73 million imported TEU, up 12.6 per cent, and 1.29 million exported TEU, up 6.2 per cent, said Hackett Associates and the Bremen Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL) in their North Europe Trade Outlook.


The forecast for 2010 of 21.12 million imported TEU or 13.8 per cent year-on-year increase remains the same. Total exports are estimated to rise nine cent to 15.44 million TEU.


Port Tracker projects its six monitored north European ports will handle a total of 15.23 million imported TEU in 2010, up 12.9 per cent year on year, and 15.72 million exported TEU, up 11.2 per cent.


The total volume forecast for 2010 remains unchanged at 37.38 million TEU, up 12.5 per cent compared to 33.22 million TEU recorded in the previous year.


Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett projected a high single-digit growth both import and export in 2011. "We should not expect to see a repeat of last year`s growth for imports as these were the result of the post-recessionary period whereas this year will be impacted by the austerity measures of the European governments," he said.


He believed the carriers` overcapacity problem will continue and this will exert pressure on freight rates, "particularly if carriers revert to market share strategies."


He also forecasts inbound volumes will fall before a rebound in February and export volumes expect to contract in four of the coming six months, a growth of 6.6 per cent in imported volume for the second quarter and 5.4 per cent for the third quarter this year. For outbound volumes, the growth will be 5.8 per cent for the second quarter and three per cent for the third.


"The modest growth forecast for the North European ports should be viewed as a return to a modest long-term growth path under the influence of the aftermath of the stock building processes witnessed early in 2010. This should lead to only modest growth rates of two per cent in the first and second quarter of 2011 while gaining momentum again in the summer," said Michael Tasto of ISL. "Under this careful assessment, throughput of containers may actually exceed the previous record."