China export growth to slow towards year end: BMI study

CHINA`s container sector is likely to suffer from a four quarter drop in international demand for its exports of clothing and household products, the "bread and butter" of container shipping, according Business Monitor International (BMI).

BMI also predicts growth in domestic demand with air freight industry leading gains with investment rising 11 per cent, truck volumes by eight per cent and rail by 7.8 per cent.


The Port of Shanghai grew 15.6 per cent and Ningbo was up 27 per cent so far this year, but that is likely to slow to 10.6 per cent and 5.1 per cent respectively, said the report.


Due to consolidation, the air freight market will bounce back from its 3.9 per cent decline in volume to rise to 11.2 per cent up to 2014 which is likely to attract investors and international airlines.


Over a three-year period, the country`s growth will slow to 2.5 per cent growth rates in 2011 with medium-term forecasts predicting a flat GDP increase of 7.9 per cent with imports averaging growth rates of 9.9 per cent as export gains shrink to 6.3 per cent.


"The main risk factor for our China freight transport forecasts lies on the downside, and is represented by a greater-than-expected double-dip global economic slowdown in 2011, potentially in the worst scenario," said the report.