Steady recovery forecast for world trade 2010/11

WORLD trade by sea, air and land is expected to grow 8.1 per cent in 2010 and 6.9 per cent in 2011, following a 7.2 per cent decline in 2009, according to the latest forecast from IHS Global Insight`s World Trade Service.

The study predicts international trade volumes will continue to increase as global economic recovery takes hold.


The study found that containerised trade volumes at the global level are forecast to reach nearly 10 per cent, with a slightly stronger recovery of 10.6 per cent on the mainline east-west trade lanes in 2010, before slowing over the next two years.


It said that exports from the Far East to North America and Europe bounced back as importers began to re-stock their depleted inventories as sales growth renewed. While trade growth is projected into 2011 and beyond, the pace is expected to be slower than in 2010.


World container trades increased by 9.2 per cent in 2010 and is projected to grow 6.8 per cent in 2011.The transatlantic trade lane is comparatively small, although still imbalanced in favour of European exports, and growth rates are susceptible to the moves in the US dollar exchange rate. Particularly sensitive are exports from the United States to Europe because of the weaker euro, according to the report.


The outlook for bulk shipping also is improving following a decline of 2.8 per cent in bulk commodity trade in 2009. IHS Global Insight forecasts bulk commodities to grow in 2010 through 2011. The Baltic Dry Index has been steadily rising from January, and seasonal demand should also boost bulk exports over the next quarter.